Advertising and Election Outcomes

My Existing Model

New local model that includes district level data on polling, incumbency, and local employment data is much more accurate. R-squared of 0.73 which is the highest so far. This is only when I use for DemMajorVotePct. When I do DemSeats(which my previous models used) as my outcome variable, I get a lower R-squared of 0.50 exactly.

Below is a plot of the actual outcomes from the 2018 election from which im pulling my predictive modeling data from.

Now I have to add the variable of ad spending on a local level. I’ve gone ahead and downloaded data from the FEC for 2018 election spending data. This isn’t exactly the ad spend per campaign but I am using it as a proxy by making the assumption that the more money a particular race / candidate has overall translates to how much it is spending in ads.

Observations	448
Dependent variable	DemVotesMajorPercent
Type	OLS linear regression

F(4,443)	312.97
R²	0.74
Adj. R²	0.74

	Est.	S.E.	t val.	p
(Intercept)	77.96	3.42	22.77	0.00
avg	-6.73	0.19	-35.15	0.00
Unemployed_prct	0.35	0.89	0.39	0.70
winner_candidate_incIncumbent	4.96	1.04	4.79	0.00
Receipts	-0.00	0.00	-3.02	0.00
Standard errors: OLS

References

Bafumi, J., Erikson, R., & Wlezien, C. (2018). Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information. PS: Political Science & Politics, 51(S1), 7-11. doi:10.1017/S1049096518001579

Ballotpedia. (2018). United States House of Representatives elections, 2018. https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018

Ballotpedia. (2022). United States Congress elections, 2022. https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2022

Congressional candidate data summary tables - FEC.gov. (2022). Retrieved 16 October 2022, from https://www.fec.gov/campaign-finance-data/congressional-candidate-data-summary-tables/?year=2022&segment=18

Cook Political Report. (2022). PVI Map and District List. https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voting-index/district-map-and-list

Gerber, A.S., Gimpel, J. G., Green, D. P., & Shaw, D. R. (2011). How Large and Long-lasting Are the Persuasive Effects of Televised Campaign Ads? Results from a Randomized Field Experiment. American Political Science Review, 105(1), 135–150. https://doi.org/10.1017/S000305541000047X

Wesleyan Media Project. (2022, October 6). Democrats Out-Pacing GOP in Senate Races. https://mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases-100622/